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IndexBox Marketing has just published a new report “EU: Flat-Rolled Products Of Iron Or Steel (Not Further Worked Than Cold-Rolled) – Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2020”.

The countries of the EU area followed the USA’s lead at the beginning of August 2016, by imposing an anti-dumping tax on Russian and Chinese cold-rolled steel for a five year term. Chinese companies are now facing an anti-dumping duty rate of 52.7-59.2%, and Russian companies – 18.7%-36.1%. This has caused by Eurofer, the European Steel Association, filed a complaint to the European Commission regarding the introduction of these restrictions.

Lower Russian and Chinese steel prices against the EU price of steel, classed as dumping, acted as the impetus for the investigation and the subsequent introduction of duties on cold-rolled steel from Russia and China. Restrictive measures then assumed the form of an anti-dumping tax, intended to enhance the position of the EU steel manufacturers at a time when the European steel industry is in crisis.

2015 year-end results indicate that steel output contracted in Germany (-0.5%), Italy (-7.2%), France (-6.8%), the U.K.(-9.9%) and Austria (-2.5%). An imports rise in Russian and Chinese rolled steel significantly intensified competition on the EU market. From 2011 through to 2015, therefore, the Chinese rolled steel share on the EU market increased from 8.3% to 8.7%, and the Russian share from 5.9% to 10.1%.

It is worth noting at this point that the EU market is more important to Russian steel producers, than the Chinese. Most rolled steel exports from China (approx. 55% in 2015) were aimed at the ASEAN-block countries, South Korea, and the Gulf States. Approximately 18% of the Russian steel manufacturers’ income (companies such as NLMK and Severstal) originates from the EU; for MMK, this EU income figure was 7%. 

According to data from the IndexBox Marketing research agency, losses incurred by Russian companies as a result of the anti-dumping tax will amount to approximately 1-2% of annual EBITDA. In response to this, Russian companies are considering the possibility of increasing hot-rolled steel exports to the EU, as these remain unaffected by the duties. In July 2016, however, the European Commission initiated an investigation into hot-rolled steel exports from Russia; the investigation is to be conducted over the next 15 months. Should anti-dumping duties be introduced on hot-rolled steel, the losses incurred by Russian steel manufacturers will be much more severe than for those regarding cold-rolled steel. 

It is expected that the incoming cold-rolled steel duty will weaken competition levels in the EU market, thereby resulting in a prices increase. Baosteel Group, therefore, one of the largest Chinese and international steel manufacturers, intends to raise the price of rolled steel by 100 yuan (approx. USA $15.6) per tonne in September 2016. This may act as a definite signal to the world’s other steel producers, who may then also follow suit, by instigating a price hike, like the Chinese. A scenario such as this may be beneficial for those companies under the Russian holding NLMK, which are based in Belgium, Denmark, Italy and France: their production capacity is currently not at full stretch. 

The trend of putting protective barriers in place on the cold-rolled steel market has already passed way beyond the one year mark, but protectionist measures became more aggressive in 2015 and 2016. This is due to the fact that the global steel market is currently experiencing a crisis in terms of saturated output and capacity. The steel industry’s global capacity utilization level fell in 2015 to 69.7% (in 2014, this figure stood at 73.4%). Combined with a slowing of economic growth in China, demand for steel in the PRC contracted, resulting in a decline in output (-2.3% in 2015 and -1.1% in the first six months of 2016). These conditions forced Chinese steel producers to step up export volumes (in 2015 Chinese steel exports increased by 19.9% to 112.4 million tonnes). This, in turn, accounts for the current steel surplus in many markets, making the governments of individual countries introduce import duties on rolled steel to ensure that local steel manufacturers are protected.   

China maintains that the anti-dumping duty is counter-productive. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has made a connection between low prices for Chinese steel with lower costs and increased output levels, than those of their foreign competitors, so the Chinese steel maufacturers’ pricing policy, therefore, is not dumping. 

In addition, Russian steel manufacturers do not support the European Commission’s decision to introduce anti-dumping duties, and they have brought to light a number of violations of WTO regulations and standards that occurred during the anti-dumping investigation. A representative from Severstal’s External Communications Department, for example, noted that the calculations are based on the ruble exchange rate as of the date of a contract’s agreement, whereas WTO regulations state the requirement to use the exchange rate as of the sale date for this process. Maria Simonova, External Communications Manager at NLMK Group, said that information submitted by the company during the invesigation was ignored and replaced with information regarding other companies’ products. Russian steel producers intend to dispute the European Commission’s decision in the European Court, and the WTO’s dispute regulation body.

Follow the link below to get additional information and illustrations:

http://www.indexbox.co.uk/news/europe-is-shielding-itself-with-a-steel-barrier/

“EU: Flat-Rolled Products Of Iron Or Steel (Not Further Worked Than Cold-Rolled) – Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2020” focuses on the EU iron or steel flat-rolled product market, providing a comprehensive analysis and the most recent data on its market size and volume, EU trade, price dynamics, domestic production, and turnover in the industry. The market trends section reveals the main issues and uncertainties concerning the industry, while the medium-term outlook uncovers market prospects. The attractivity index (IB Index) summarizes the source of existing opportunities as they appear in this market, as well as an interpretation of the trade figures. 

Countries coverage: 
EU(28) – Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, the United Kingdom.

Product coverage: 
Flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel, not further worked than cold-rolled; flat-rolled products of stainless steel or of other alloy steel, not further worked than cold-rolled (except products of silicon-electrical steel or high speed steel).

Data coverage: 
• Market size and value; 
• EU production, split by EU Member States; 
• Production by type; 
• Profiles of the leading companies; 
• EU trade (intra and extra); 
• Prices (producer, import and export); 
• Trade structure and market channels; 
• Market outlook to 2020; 
• Per Capita Consumption. 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 REPORT DESCRIPTION
1.2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2.1 KEY FINDINGS
2.2 MARKET TRENDS

3. MARKET OVERVIEW
3.1 MARKET VOLUME AND VALUE 
3.2 TRADE BALANCE
3.3 MARKET STRUCTURE BY COUNTRIES 
3.4 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES BY COUNTRIES
3.5 MARKET FORECAST TO 2020

4. DOMESTIC PRODUCTION 
4.1 PRODUCTION IN 2007-2015
4.2 PRODUCTION BY TYPES 
4.3 PRODUCTION BY COUNTRIES

5. IMPORTS
5.1 IMPORTS IN 2007-2015
5.2 IMPORTS BY TYPES
5.3 IMPORTS BY COUNTRIES
5.3 IMPORT PRICES BY TYPES AND COUNTRIES

6. EXPORTS
6.1 EXPORTS IN 2007-2015
6.1 EXPORTS BY TYPES
6.2 EXPORTS BY COUNTRIES
6.3 EXPORT PRICES

7. PRICES AND PRICE DEVELOPMENT
7.1 PRODUCER PRICES ON THE DOMESTIC MARKET
7.2 PRODUCER PRICES ON THE NON DOMESTIC MARKET

8. TRADE STRUCTURE AND CHANNELS
8.1 MAJOR TRADE CHANNELS
8.2 PRICE STRUCTURE

9. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT OVERVIEW
9.1 STRUCTURAL PROFILE
9.2 COUNTRY ANALYSIS
9.3 SIZE CLASS ANALYSIS
10. COMPANY PROFILES

Appendix 1: Trade and Prices by Countries

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