AUSTIN, TX – 4 Nov, 2016 – Just as we have done in previous national elections, we at The O’Leary Report are using the reports of international newspapers and the major local dailies in each state to place our political analysis for election day.
As many of you know, the O’Leary Report also owns a free news site called 8guy-news.com where you can get the latest news from all of Americas newspapers and key English-language newspapers from cities around the world.
Based on this, we see the electoral college vote in the United States being won by Trump by probably 3-5 electoral college votes. That’s also in keeping with the London Express newspaper, one of the four London papers that competes to be most successful in calling American politics.
The London Express indicated Wednesday that they saw Hillary Clinton winning the electoral vote election 273-265. However, on Thursday with three new polls in New Hampshire calling the race a tie or Trump leading, coupled with polls showing the Republican candidates in New Hampshire for governor and Senator also winning, the call was switched to 269-269, with enough state margins shifting to Trump meaning he will win by the smallest of margins.
That number is confirmed by two internationally acclaimed pollsters who lean liberal and Democrat. The first one is Nate Silver, who has been very successful in calling presidential elections. His analysis shows Clinton still ahead and likely to win, but he refers to her long-standing firewall as “becoming a rusting chain-link fence.”
The second pollster we’re looking at is John Zogby, who in fairness I must disclose that I’ve done polling with for twenty years. His analysis is much more destructive to Hillary Clinton. Though he certainly not a Trump supporter, he refers to Clinton like the cartoon character Pigpen in Peanuts, who constantly shows up with a dark cloud of dirt. As she goes into election day, she’s bringing that same dark cloud, whether it’s her health, the old email scandal, and the new email scandal. In The O’Leary Report’s opinion, this was brought about by the stupidity of lawyers and principals in not demanding that an accused, but not convicted, pedophile’s computer wasn’t checked for subpoenaed data.
In addition, no national newspaper seems to be testing Trump’s push to take black voters away from Clinton by checking how many blacks may vote for him or, more importantly, how many will stay home angered by Hillary and Bill Clinton’s thirty years of failure to deliver on promises.
No one in the press seems to be aware the Reverend Lewis Farrakhan has for weeks, including last Sunday in his sermon, warned black voters that Hillary and her husband are responsible for incarcerating an unnecessary number of blacks when her husband was President. Although Farrakhan does not indicate he’ll vote for Trump, he’s definitely not voting for Clinton, and he does praise Trump for trying. The O’Leary Report expects that it will cause many black voters to stay home.
The fact that major newspapers are not checking the likely votes of American Jewish voters is shocking. With Obama letting the state of Israel be attacked by the U.N. and the voting block of Arab countries, Trump is liable to profit from reduced voting, and even more votes than Romney got for him. If reporters and editors were reading the Jerusalem Post, they would know that American Jewish voters who live in Israel and cast their ballots there have a turnout that is reduced by almost 50% from 2012. They would also know that exit polling would should that Donald Trump is garnering 49% of the vote. However, you can’t criticize them for ignoring bad news for their candidate.
A review of the newspapers for the top contested Senate races indicate that the Republicans will retain control of the Senate. In two states, Wisconsin and Indiana, the democratic Senate candidates who moved out of state after their election loss six years ago have just run out of steam. In Indiana, the likelihood of a big Trump win means that both states will probably stay in the Republican column. Pennsylvania will depend upon Trump winning or losing, but right now the Democrat seems likely to win. In Ohio, which Trump seems likely to win, so does the Republican Senate incumbent.
In Missouri, where Trump is running the numbers up against Clinton, there is a neck-and-neck race for the U.S. Senate which will be decided if Trump has enough coattails to bring in the Republican incumbent.
Illinois seems lost to Trump and the incumbent Republican Senator, and by the next election will probably be run by bankruptcy lawyers. In New Hampshire and Nevada, the winner will probably be called by how much Clinton loses the state or pulls out a win.
Also, one of the advantages of checking daily newspapers in all 50 states every morning is, like we did two years ago, that we can make pretty educated calls on the races for state Senate and state legislature, and that’s why we were the only one two years ago to call the massive wipeout of Democrats in state legislations. Although we don’t see that wipeout happening again, we think the Democrats will recoup no more than 10% of races lost. They are unlikely to increase the number of governors’ mansions they have from the 29 they hold today.
Good luck to all our readers, and be aware that election night may not end until Wednesday night with the races so close and courts so near.
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Company Name: The O’Leary Report
Contact Person: Bradley O\’Leary
Country: United States