Now, no one can give a satisfactory answer to the public against earthquake forecast, the “worldwide problem” recognized.
It is gratifying that in the field of earthquake forecast research in China, Quan Ruixian, a researcher of new theory of earthquake, has revealed and explained the causes of earthquake from an entirely new angle through observation, analysis, comparison and verification for over 10 years, which has reference value that cannot be neglected to earthquake study cause and prevention and reduction of natural disasters.
Quan Ruixian is a doctor of business administration, the founder of basic theories of Chinese earthquake, Quan Ruixian’s earthquake theory and relevant basic theories, the vice president of Chinese Scientist Forum, the managing director of Global Leadership Research Center of Peking University and the director of Earth Operation Law and System Science Research Center of China Academy of Management Science.
Reveal the Causes of Earthquake through Scientific Exploration
“Information about occurrence and development of earthquake cannot be sized in time and earthquake is impossible to be predicted unless real-time monitoring is executed in brand new thinking model of being dynamic, moving, changing and developmental.” Ms. Quan Ruixian’s viewpoint made many domestic and foreign experts and scholars and audiences’ eyes pop out.
It is learned that Ms. Quan Ruixian began to seek earthquake precursor in 1999. She inspired, discovered threads, concluded and found out ways by looked up information, case study, observing astronomical phenomena, comparison study and field visit.
She questioned bravely and verified scientifically. Earthquake cause is a significant subject in earthquake discipline. At present, plate tectonic theory is widely recognized, which was firstly proposed by Wilson, famed Canadian geophysicist in 1965. In 1968, French divided the global lithosphere into six plates, Eurasian Plate, Pacific Plate, American Plate, Indian Ocean Plate, African Plate and Antarctic Plate. This basic theory has been dominated earthquake forecast for approximately 50 years. Quan Ruixian asked whether earthquake is really unpredictable or there is any problem in thinking model of earthquake forecast study or in knowledge structure? The basic theory that takes “plate movement” as the cause of earthquake is complete? What is proof that locks the international standard for epicenter scope within 100 kilometers? Is that scientifically objective or artificially surmised?
“I found there are two problems in earthquake study at present. Firstly, most of experts and scholars study and predict earthquake with specialized knowledge and technologies and their limited knowledge structure they have learned; Secondly, each of the various countries implements earthquake in their own ways and restrict their activities and due to regional division without exchange and discussion. There is no global earthquake forecast system yet.” Quan Ruixian said.
Quan Ruixian has got some new discoveries in exploration:
The first discovery: “plate movement” is not the cause of earthquake. Whether, “plate tectonics theory” in traditional theory or “structural earthquake”, “volcanic earthquake” and “artificial earthquake” popularizing in Internet, are not the cause of earthquake. All of them are outward manifestation form in the process of earthquake occurrence. Why can the plates move? Why can the volcanoes erupt? The problems are hardly explained with defects.
Quan Ruixian has summarized factors causing earthquake that, the external factors are celestial gravitational force, unsteadiness of center of gravity and unbalance of gravity, the internal factors are rotation and revolution of the earth and gravitational force. When center of gravity is unsteady, gravity is unbalance or it is unbalanced between celestial body and gravitational force, the earth realize new balance through rotation and revolution, the substances inside the earth may accelerate the movement to form huge impact force to give rise to shake or vibration especially in the weak areas in which center of gravity is unsteady or gravitational force is unbalanced to trigger earthquake.
Fault zone and earthquake belt formed not due to mutual collision during plate movement, but unsteadiness of center of gravity and unbalance of gravitational force.
Ms. Quan Ruixian said that the factors causing unsteadiness of center of gravity and unbalance of gravitational force and unbalance of gravitational force are artificial factor and natural factor.
Artificial factor: Extracting and consumeing petroleum, natural gas, various mineral products and other underground resources largely; constructing over high and over dense urban building groups and over deep and over wide reservoirs. The relevant research data shows that a plenty of consumption of petroleum, natural gas, coal and other underground resources is easily to cause cavity inside the earth crust to destroy original balance inside the earth crust and to make new unbalance artificially to trigger collapse, landslide, debris flow, earthquake, lake water drought, river water cutoff and other natural disasters. The magnitude 5.3 earthquake in Songyuan City, Jilin Province on November 22, 2013 was a typical case of induced earthquake which artificial factor occupies a higher proportion.
Natural factor: For millions years, the mountain streams, lakes and seas formed in the process of movement of the earth formed various landforms of uneven height, thickness and weight on the surface of the earth crust. All of them formed naturally under the common role of celestial gravitation, gravitational force and rotation and revolution of the earth
For example, difference proportion of weight is extremely large between the Himalaya Mountains and the flat ground of its mountain foot. Under the role of gravitational force, weight of the Himalaya Mountain is far beyond the bearing capacity of the flat ground of the mountain foot so that Himalaya Fault Zone and Earthquake Belt formed. The average distance between the land of Japan and the seabed is 300 meters to 400 meters. That means, Japanese residents are living on roofs of a 100-storey in a long and narrow cliff. Because of unsteady gravity center, when there is just a little exception in internal movement of the earth, the gravity center of that area will displace to cause waggle and shake. This is the reason why earthquake occurs fluently in Japan.
Ms. Quan Ruixian introduced than, Wenchan and Lushan, Sichuan Province and Ludian, Yunnan Province are regions of steep cliffs. Extremely unsteady center of gravity, many oil and gas field exploitation areas and over high water storage of Reservoir of the Three Gorges further triggered and increased unsteadiness of center of gravity and unbalance of gravity, which leads to frequent occurrence of earthquake, landslide and debris flow.
The second discovery: There are many earthquake precursors and most of them are regular, but due to different landforms, seasons and geographical conditions, earthquake precursors are produced. Actually, earthquake precursors and rules are hidden in common climate changes especially changes of abnormal climate.
The third discovery: At present, it is not objective and unscientific to lock the international standard for epicenter forecast range within 100 kilometers.
Quan Ruixian found that the process of occurrence and development of earthquake is changeable like typhoon and either weakens or strengthens at any moment. The more earthquake magnitude, the more range of epicenter. It cause that earthquake is difficult to seize and predict.
Quan Ruixian thinks that the epicenter range of earthquake forecast is impossible to be locked within 100 kilometers. The epicenter range should be shrunk base on being objective, scientific and truth as much as possible. Facts proved that locking international standard for epicenter range, one of the three factors of earthquake within 100 kilometers is not objective and unscientific.
The fourth discovery: before and after earthquake, airplane crash, marine perils, derailing, gas explosion and water seepage of coal mine, frequent fire and other major disastrous accidents are likely to occur. Besides artificial factors, it is also closely associated with natural factors such as changes of earth magnetic field and earthquake.
Attempt to Practice Earthquake Forecast and Prevention and Reduction of Natural Disasters
In earthquake forecast and prevention and reduction of natural disasters, Ms. Quan Ruixian pays attention to not only basic theoretical study, but also practical action. She has done everything to unite more forces to explore new knowledge to pay back the country and the society.
On 12th Chinese Scientist Forum, Thinking Mode of Innovating Earthquake Prediction, Jumping out of the Trap of Traditional Theory and Awake from the Sleep Talk That “Earthquake Is Unpredictable, the article published by Ms. Quan Ruixian, was rated as “excellent academic achievement of new theory of Earthquake Forecast of China” by the organizing committee and was cognized and affirmed by academicians of Chinese Academy of Science and relevant national leaders and was reported and spread by the most authoritative 10 media at home.
Ms. Quan Ruixian said that, based on study on earthquake for over 10 years and over 20 successful forecast cases, I believe that earthquake is predictable. However, premise earthquake forecast needs close combination of multidiscipline and joint research.
It is learned that Earth Operation Rule and System Scientific Research Center which Quan Ruixian is responsible for plans to focus on forecast and prevention and reduction of earthquake in the next 5 years.
Struggle with natural disasters is the permanent subject is the survival and development of human beings. At present, earthquake forecast and prevention and reduction of disaster in the world needs urgent to be perfect. As the strong voice of the times of scientific community, Quan Ruixian’s earthquake forecast and study on climate anomaly change bring new hopes.
Written by Wang Lu
Company Name: Chinese Academy of management science
Contact Person: Quan Ruixian