Global Electric Bus Market to Exceed US$ 37 billion by 2028, finds Bekryl Market Analysts
According to the recently released report by Bekryl, Global Electric Bus Market is estimated to be valued over US$ 25 billion in 2019. There will be over 820 thousand on-road electric bus units by 2028. Growth in the market is primarily driven by higher emphasis on potential replacement of diesel buses with electric buses. Global electric bus unit sales (except China) will register 26.1% CAGR between 2018 and 2028.
Excerpts from the research report states China to be the leading destination for e-buses industry players. In 2018, China accounted for 97.7% of total e-buses unit sales. As of 2019, every third bus is powered with electric batteries. The industry is dominated by presence of large number of regional players. Earlier in 2018, Bekryl predicted China to register slowdown in unit sales in 2018 and 2019. The same has been noted with unit sales declining by 17.9% in 2018 as compared to that in 2017. In continuation, Bekryl further projects growth to decline by 14% in 2019. Decline in growth is attributed to decreased electric vehicle subsidies by up to 50% in 2019. This has adversely affected the regional players that relies heavily on government subsidies. Sales has declined and companies seems to be struggling making profits. BYD, a key player in electric bus segment, has temporarily shut-down its operations at its EV bus factory in Guangzhou in March 2019. Another company Zhongtong Bus Holding registered over 30% drop in electric bus unit sales in 2018.
If China government completely phase out the subsidies by 2020, Chinese players will be put on level playing field with those of North America and Europe based companies. However, long standing technical expertise will help China based players to dominate the global share. Substantial phase-out of subsidies will lead China electric bus market to become consolidated by 2025. While the sales in the region will decline, China will still continue to generate highest revenue for electric bus manufacturers worldwide. Furthermore, Bekryl estimates sales in the country to stabilize by 2023, thereby registering upward trajectory growth. On an average, China e-buses market will witness 62 thousand annual unit sales between 2019 and 2028, with cyclic variation.
India has emerged as the second largest destination for industry players. In 2019, government of India allocated US$ 349.6 million towards procurement of 5,000 electric buses. The trend is likely to be same throughout the forecast period, with government taking necessary steps towards achieving 100% electric vehicle sales by 2030.
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Few key trends from the report:
Trend#1: Companies are Focusing on Battery Technology to Offer High Mileage Vehicles
Various electric bus manufactures focus on enhancing their battery technology and charging solutions through partnership and product development. These manufacturers focus on prolonging the bus run duration as well as minimizing the charging duration.
In 2017, Proterra Inc. partnered with LG Chem, a South Korea based chemical company, in order to develop battery cell optimized for the heavy duty vehicle market. Similar development is witnessed across other leading companies.
Trend#2: School Electric Bus Market to Create New Revenue Opportunities for Industry Players
While transit electric buses will continue to dominate the global sales, school electric bus will gain highest traction during the forecast period. The trend will be strong in North America, wherein school buses account for a larger share. As per the estimates, there are close to 460,000 school buses operational in U.S. The Government is focusing on phasing out conventional buses with e-buses in order to comply with sustainable growth. In 2016, U.S. government came up with grants worth US$ 7.7 Million for electric bus deployment across 88 participants. In 2018, U.S. government again came up with US$ 8.7 Million grant to either replace or retrofit the existing conventional buses. As per the 2018 EPA’s DERA Funding policies, a rebate of US$ 15,000 to US$20,000 per unit is applicable to buses with 2006 or older version.
Bekryl estimates the school electric buses will be a disruptive driving force in U.S. Lower competition and government support will further help companies to drive high ROI. While there is immense opportunity, the deployment is expected to be partially slower and will gain high traction post 2023.
Trend#3: Plant Expansion
Demand for electric bus has significantly increased in last few years. Various government is actively encouraging the deployment of e-buses with lucrative incentives. As such, companies are not only strengthening their marketing channels but also focusing on setting up production plant across continent. Plant expansion is a part of strategic importance. Pricing plays a key role in overall bus tenders. As such, local/regional production plants will greatly reduce the operational cost and ensure higher return on investment (ROI) on long term duration.
Companies are strategically focusing on plant capacity addition in order to lower supply chain gap. For instance, in 2019, Olectra-BYD announced its plans to setup its second production plant in India, which is expected to be full-fledged operational by 2021. In 2017, BYD Company set up new electric bus manufacturing plant at Komaram, Hungary, in order to cater to growing demand in Eastern Europe. Another company Proterra set up manufacturing plant at Los Angeles, U.S. in the same year.
Key Players covered in the report are:
Some key global electric bus market players are Yutong, New Flyer of America, BYD Company Limited, AB Volvo, Daimler AG, Proterra, Inc., and Zhongtong Bus & Holding Co., Ltd. Also, other key contributors are Ashok Leyland, Ltd., Solaris Bus & Coach S.A., EBUSCO, Shenzhen Wuzhoulong Motors Co., Ltd, and Alexander Dennis Limited.
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